The tide goes out
The cryptocurrency sell-off has exposed those swimming naked
And investors are beginning to discriminate
加密货币的抛售让那些裸泳者暴露无遗
而投资者也开始分辨了
Financial aphorisms are trotted out by investors in every financial cycle. Think of “Buy the rumour, sell the fact”, or “Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”. These sayings have staying power because they often ring true. Today, after a two-year boom, cryptocurrency assets are collapsing in value, and the aphorism that captures the moment is “When the tide goes out, you find out who is swimming naked”.
在每个金融周期中，投资者都会提出一些金融谚语。想想 "买入谣言，卖出事实"，或 "市场保持非理性的时间比你保持溶剂的时间更长"。这些谚语有持久的力量，因为它们往往是真实的。今天，在经历了两年的繁荣之后，加密货币资产的价值正在崩溃，而捕捉到这一时刻的箴言是 "当潮水退去，你会发现谁在裸泳"。
The crypto slump has been brutal. In November the total market value of cryptocurrencies was almost $3trn. That fell to $2trn by mid-April before plunging by another 35% to just $1.3trn now. Bitcoin has briefly dipped below $29,000, its lowest since late 2020. Crypto's detractors have long maligned it as useless—unless you are a money-launderer or con-artist—and predicted its demise. The rout raises the question of whether they are right. In fact the picture is rather different: a process of sorting is taking place as the dodgiest parts of the crypto world are exposed, while other parts prove more resilient (see Finance & economics section).
加密货币的暴跌是残酷的。在11月，加密货币的总市值几乎为3万亿美元。到4月中旬跌至2万亿美元，然后又暴跌35%，现在只有1.3万亿美元。比特币曾短暂跌破29,000美元，是2020年底以来的最低点。诋毁加密货币的人长期以来一直认为它毫无用处--除非你是一个洗钱者或骗子--并预测它的消亡。这次溃败提出了一个问题，即他们是否正确。事实上，情况是相当不同的：随着加密货币世界中最糟糕的部分被曝光，而其他部分被证明更有弹性，一个分类的过程正在发生（见金融和经济部分）。
The crypto collapse is part of a broader slump. Red-hot inflation is forcing central banks to tighten monetary policy, triggering a huge sell-off in riskier or long-dated assets such as tech stocks and 30-year bonds. The tech-heavy nasdaq index is down by 29% from its high, whereas the s&p 500 index has shed “just” 18%.
加密货币的崩溃是更广泛的低迷的一部分。红红火火的通货膨胀正迫使中央银行收紧货币政策，引发了风险较大或期限较长的资产的巨大抛售，如科技股和30年期债券。科技股密集的纳斯达克指数从其高点下跌了29%，而标准普尔500指数 "只 "下跌了18%。
Top of the list of speculative assets receiving a drubbing is crypto. The sell-off has exposed glaring weaknesses. Consider terra, an “algorithmic” stablecoin, whose value is backed by another asset, supposedly making it dependable. On paper users could redeem $1 of terra for $1 worth of another cryptocurrency, luna, which would be issued to meet demand. But luna's price began to slide in early May, putting two-to-four times pressure on the terra peg. There was a rush to redeem. As luna's supply ballooned, its price collapsed. On May 10th 350m luna tokens existed; now 6.5trn do. At its peak, luna was worth $40bn and supported $18bn of terra. Now it is worthless, and terra is trading at 10 cents. In hindsight the scheme looks mad.
在投机性资产中，受到打击的榜首是加密货币。这次抛售暴露了明显的弱点。考虑一下terra，一种 "算法 "稳定币，其价值由另一种资产支持，据说这使它变得可靠。在纸面上，用户可以用1美元的terra换取另一种加密货币luna的价值1美元，后者将被发行以满足需求。但是Luna的价格在5月初开始下滑，给terra的挂钩带来了2到4倍的压力。人们急于赎回。随着鲁纳币的供应膨胀，其价格也崩溃了。5月10日，有3.5亿个Luna代币；现在有6.5万个。在高峰期，Luna价值400亿美元，支持180亿美元的terra。现在它一文不值，而Terra的交易价格为10美分。事后看，这个计划看起来很疯狂。
At the other end of the spectrum is usdc, a stablecoin backed by cash and short-dated Treasury bills which publishes audited financial statements each month. It has done fine. So has dai, another stablecoin that is backed by crypto and run by algorithms. It has a decent degree of transparency and holds at least 1.5 times as much backing as it needs. The supply of the cryptocurrencies it relies on—usdc and ether—is independently controlled.
在光谱的另一端是usdc，这是一个由现金和短期国库券支持的稳定币，每月公布经审计的财务报表。它做得很好。dai也是如此，它是另一个由加密货币支持的稳定币，由算法运行。它有相当程度的透明度，并持有至少1.5倍于其需求的支持。它所依赖的加密货币--USDC和ether--的供应是独立控制的。
In the middle of these two extremes is tether, the biggest stablecoin, which briefly dipped below its par value of $1 per token on May 12th. It says it is backed by assets like cash, Treasuries and corporate debt, but its disclosure is awful. Tether refuses to reveal the precise asset mix, claiming this is its “secret sauce”. It had previously been fined by New York’s attorney-general for misleading investors. As the broader market sell-off in the past weeks has intensified, its holders have rightly grown nervous. Since it slipped from its peg, tether holders have redeemed about $9bn-worth of tokens, some 10% of the total.
在这两个极端的中间，是最大的稳定币tether，它在5月12日短暂地跌破了每代币1美元的面值。它说它是由现金、国债和公司债等资产支持的，但它的披露很糟糕。Tether拒绝透露精确的资产组合，声称这是它的 "秘方"。此前，它曾因误导投资者而被纽约总检察长罚款。随着过去几周更广泛的市场抛售加剧，其持有者理所当然地变得紧张。自从它从钉子上滑落以来，tether持有人已经赎回了大约90亿美元的代币，约占总数的10%。
Investors are now doing what they are supposed to: penalising instruments that are fundamentally flawed or issued by organisations that are badly run. Yet the sell-off has sparked renewed calls for the government to step in. Consumers are in danger of being ripped off. And volatility could yet spill over into the conventional financial system. For example, tether is a key part of the crypto-plumbing and the most liquid base currency for trading between other crypto assets, and between crypto and conventional ones. If it failed the fallout would be bigger.
在这两个极端的中间，是最大的稳定币tether，它在5月12日短暂地跌破了每代币1美元的面值。它说它是由现金、国债和公司债等资产支持的，但它的披露很糟糕。Tether拒绝透露精确的资产组合，声称这是它的 "秘方"。此前，它曾因误导投资者而被纽约总检察长罚款。随着过去几周更广泛的市场抛售加剧，其持有者理所当然地变得紧张。自从它从钉子上滑落以来，tether持有人已经赎回了大约90亿美元的代币，约占总数的10%。
Some critics would like the crypto system banned; others would like it heavily regulated, just as banks are; still others want regulation but fear that this might be interpreted as an official endorsement. The trouble is that a draconian crackdown would put at risk the benefits that crypto eventually promises, including new financial products that bypass stodgy banks; innovations in property rights; and the possibility of a less centralised financial system.
一些批评者希望加密货币系统被禁止；另一些人希望它受到严格监管，就像银行一样；还有一些人希望受到监管，但担心这可能被解释为官方的认可。麻烦的是，严厉的打击将危及加密货币最终承诺的好处，包括绕过呆板的银行的新金融产品；产权方面的创新；以及建立一个不太集中的金融系统的可能性。
So what should governments do? The best path would be to accelerate the process of sorting that is under way. Key to this is more reliable information so that retail users and institutions can guard more effectively against fraud. In particular, stablecoins should be forced to disclose their backing—what the assets are, where they are held and who controls them. Some crypto ventures based outside America are beyond easy reach of its regulators, but Uncle Sam could require the big crypto exchanges in America, which are already regulated, to flag which tokens have met disclosure standards. The aphorism that springs to mind is helping the market sort the wheat from the chaff.
那么政府应该怎么做呢？最好的办法是加快正在进行的分类过程。这方面的关键是更可靠的信息，以便零售用户和机构能够更有效地防范欺诈。特别是，稳定币应该被迫披露其支持--资产是什么，在哪里持有，谁控制着它们。一些位于美国以外的加密货币企业不容易被监管机构发现，但山姆大叔可以要求美国的大型加密货币交易所（已经受到监管）标记哪些代币符合披露标准。我想到的一句话是，帮助市场将麦子从谷壳中分拣出来。